Can India Ever Trust America?

10 hours ago

6 min read

For almost 20 years, Washington has called US-India ties one of the defining relationships of the 21st century. It said so after backing Pakistan in the Cold War, after sanctioning India in 1998, and even after 50% tariffs. But with America questioning Canada’s sovereignty, cutting Ukraine's access to Starshield, and leaving allies from Tokyo to Taipei unsure where it stands, India faces a new question: can it ever trust America?

Expert Perspective: Analysis by Abishur Prakash ("Mr. Geopolitics"), one of the world's leading geopolitical speakers and author of six books, advising companies on the fractured world. Prakash delivers keynotes in Toronto, NYC, London, Dubai, Warsaw, and worldwide.

Full transcript: Abishur Prakash ("Mr. Geopolitics") on US-India relations and the global trust deficit

The Defining Relationship

For almost 20 years, the US-India relationship has been defined through one phrase: that this is one of the most defining relationships of the 21st century. In fact, besides US-China relations or India-China relations, it’s India-US relations that are, and have been, believed to shape the next 100 years.

And this was the case even after the US backed Pakistan during the Cold War. It was the case even after the US put sanctions on India in 1998. It was the case even in the backdrop of 50% US tariffs on India last year.

But today, because of American unpredictability, because of what America is doing in questioning Canada’s sovereignty and threatening to take Greenland, because American security commitments to Japan, South Korea and the Philippines are all up in the air, and because if China took Taiwan today, there’s complete ambiguity over whether America would show up, India faces a new, fundamental question: can India ever really trust America? Can India and America truly achieve the potential of that phrase, the defining relationship of the 21st century?

It Was Never About Trust

But in reality, for India, it’s not about trust. And it never has been about trust. For India, it’s been about self-reliance. It’s been about redundancy. It’s been about hedging. It’s been about non-alignment. And we’re seeing that play out very differently.

We’re all familiar with how India has diversified its oil and energy imports over the years, from the Gulf to Russia to sovereign refining capacity. But now India is going one step further. India is using organizations like ADNOC from the UAE to increase its strategic reserves by 500%. So India is not just focused on diversification anymore. India is focused on sovereign capacity.

And of course, there’s India’s refining footprint. Having some of the largest refiners on Earth, having the largest refining facility in the world, is no longer just a badge of honour for India. It’s no longer just being used to supply Europe with Russian diesel, even though the Europeans don’t want to acknowledge that’s happening. Now India’s refining capacity is being eyed by the United States to process Venezuelan crude, with Washington viewing India as a refining superpower. This is a fundamental shift. And it also applies to what India is doing with technology and with defence.

And the catalyst for what India is doing on redundancy and self-reliance is no longer a global financial meltdown. It’s no longer a pandemic. It’s no longer preparing for a war with China that weaponizes supply chains and paralyzes the Indian economy. Now the single biggest driver of what India is doing across the board is the United States.

It’s US decisions, like the US-Iran war and the chaos in the Strait of Hormuz, that are forcing India to take steps, forcing India to recalibrate how it thinks about the global trade architecture, how it thinks about regions, and how it thinks about trade. And the rise of mutual defence pacts, like what Pakistan has signed with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, only increases the pressure on India to rethink its external reliances, much of which is being triggered by the United States.

That’s the new status quo. That’s where US-India relations are today.

The Speed Brakes: China & Pakistan

And it’s not just India’s own internal decisions, or India’s own outlook, that’s putting the question on the table of whether India can ever trust America. It’s also US decisions towards other countries.

Take, for example, the US-China détente. A decade ago, under Donald Trump’s first term, the Americans and the West were focused single-mindedly on decoupling, which later became de-risking, from China. The focus was on effectively ripping supply chains out of China and placing them in geographies like India and Vietnam, or reshoring them back home. In those moments, there was very little the Americans would not give India to slowly shift economic gravity away from China and ensure India moved closer to the US corner.

That policy stance is gone. Now, from the US point of view, stability with China, ensuring China is happy, and ensuring that the US, China and Russia treat each other like great powers, as we’re seeing with this potential summit between President Trump, President Xi and President Putin, is what matters. This great-power logic is now overpowering the ideas of the past. And in that setup, the US is not interested in helping India to the point of angering China. The US is more interested in making sure China is happy, even if it means angering India. That’s the new formula.

And then there is, of course, the US-Pakistan relationship, which has gone through a rebirth over the past 18 months and challenged almost 20 years of American foreign policy that prioritized India over Pakistan, viewed India as the defining relationship of the 21st century, and pushed Pakistan to the periphery.

But in the past 18 months, Pakistan has become America’s main channel for negotiating with Iran. Pakistan is offering America critical minerals. Pakistan took centre stage at the Board of Peace. Pakistan has gone from being a peripheral partner of America to a key partner of the United States, and the US has shown little regard for what this means for India.

From the Indian perspective, this crosses all the red lines. It’s triggering all the alarm bells. It’s making it clear to New Delhi that America’s stance towards India is no longer concrete, but fluid.

Can America Trust India?

Now, of course, there is another side to the coin here, and I’m going to play devil’s advocate for a second. From the American perspective, if India can cozy up to the United States, Russia, China, Israel and Iran all at the same time, then why does America have to pick India over Pakistan, or Pakistan over India? And the US point of view is just as valid here as India’s.

This leads to the other fundamental question. If there are two questions, the first is whether India can ever trust America. The second is whether America can ever really trust India.

Because from the American perspective, look at the countries India is aligning with and the projects India is engaged in, from de-dollarization to new BRICS commodity baskets, and the steps India is taking, like rebuffing Western attempts to isolate Russia. From the Indian perspective, this is about sovereignty. This is about non-alignment. But from the American point of view, these are all signs that India is not committed to America, that India is not aligned with the United States, and that India is not willing to give it all to walk shoulder to shoulder with the US.

And so both sides are viewing each other through the lens of a trust deficit.

Neither Side Is All In

At the end of the day, in this new geopolitical jungle that the US, India and every other major power find themselves in, the fundamental question is not about trust. The fundamental question is no longer just about redundancy, hedging and self-reliance. The fundamental question is: how far can two countries really go when neither side is all in?

I hope this latest video resonated with you. Leave your thoughts below on whether India can ever trust America, or whether America can ever trust India. I’d love to see your comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe, and talk soon.