Mr. Geopolitics Launches First "Geopolitical Dial" | 60% Chance US-Iran War Restarts

Apr 21
2 min read

Geopolitical expert and speaker Abishur Prakash ("Mr. Geopolitics") unveils the world's first "Geopolitical Dial," explaining why there is a 60% chance the US-Iran war restarts.

Summary: Geopolitical Dial: US-Iran War

Why 60% Chance: The US-Iran war has entered a new phase. The US wants to end the war through regime change and de-nuclearizing Iran. Meanwhile, Iran wants to win the war by making the global economy bleed through energy shortages. In the backdrop, China is using Iran as a proxy to weaken America, while the US faces new “geopolitical isolation” due to Western nations refusing to provide support.

NEW LONG GAME

Dualing Energy Corridors: By throttling the Hormuz Strait, Iran is giving allies access to critical resources, leaving the West in the cold. Meanwhile, by blockading Iranian ports, America is positioning its energy exports, like LNG, as the ultimate solution.
Fractured Security: The Iran war is driving a “security divorce” between the US and Europe. The EU is eyeing a sovereign approach to securing the Hormuz Strait, making the Iran war the first sign of Europe’s new “post-America” positioning.

TURNING THE DIAL (DE-ESCALATION OR ESCALATION)

De-Escalation (80/20): A third party steps in (like Turkey) to guarantee a US-Iran peace deal, including inspecting Iranian nuclear facilities. The US imposes a multi-decade moratorium (i.e., 50 years) on Iranian nuclear weapons development.
War Horizon (90/10): Talks break down in Islamabad, pushing the US to begin striking Iranian bridges, railways, strategic reserves, and power plants, deploying ground troops, and resulting in China and Russia aiding Iran in more sophisticated ways.

WILDCARDS

US and Iran return to fighting, causing Saudi Arabia to activate its mutual defense treaty with Pakistan, expanding the parameters of the war.
The OECD and G20 declare an economic emergency and prepare measures as shortages form around food, energy, and critical materials.

Expert Perspective: Analysis by Abishur Prakash, one of the world's leading geopolitical experts and speakers. This "Geopolitical Dial" shows why there is a 60% chance of the US-Iran war restarting (and a 40% chance of the war being resolved through diplomacy).