Trump 3.0 Begins Today

2 hours ago

8 min read

Democrats have won a blue wave, taking the House and Senate in their biggest victory in decades. But the shock waves go far beyond America. China may squeeze a weakened Trump for a better deal. Canada, Europe, Japan and South Korea may try to wait him out. And with his biggest moves coming through executive orders, the midterms may not constrain Trump at all. They may set him free. Welcome to Trump 3.0.

Expert Perspective: Analysis by Abishur Prakash ("Mr. Geopolitics"), one of the world's leading geopolitical speakers and author of six books, advising companies on the fractured world. Prakash delivers keynotes in Toronto, NYC, London, Dubai, Warsaw, and worldwide.

Full transcript: Abishur Prakash ("Mr. Geopolitics") on the US midterms and "Trump 3.0"

Almost everybody is talking about what the midterms mean for America. Almost nobody is talking about what the midterms mean for the world. Because what the world sees is very different to what Americans see. Some countries are going to now wait out Trump. Some countries are now going to try and squeeze the United States. Regardless, the midterm results are as much about the world as they are about the US, and they signal the start of what can only be described as Trump 3.0 officially beginning today.

Now, before I get into the geopolitics, let me make it clear, there has been a blue wave. Democrats are projected to gain over 250 seats, some, say, 258 seats in the U.S. House. If they do that, it'll be their biggest victory since the 1990s. In fact, in some races, like in Kansas, where Democrats have won for the first time since the 1930s. So this is a significant moment for Democrats. This completely tilts. It's a 180 in terms of how the U.S. House has functioned since the 2024 election.

But again, this is far bigger than the U.S. There are several big geopolitical shock waves to think about, to consider.

China Smells Weakness

Number one, is that some countries are now going to view President Trump, as weakened, and are going to try and squeeze the United States into a deal. And the first nation that may seek to do that is China. There has been no U.S. China deal. There has been a détente. I have constantly referred to this as détente as a weapon. In fact, I don't view this as a pause. This is more geopolitical theater to calm markets than anything else. The reality is the US and China are still trying to sign a deal. And China knows now that President Trump needs a win. And the Chinese may try to extract certain concessions from the United States, like tariff relief or less export controls on American technologies. The Chinese could even attempt to throttle rare earths, already several Western companies are warning that their access, to Chinese critical minerals has not returned since China weaponized them last year. China could increase the pressure, throttle more critical minerals to Western supply chains, all correlated to the US midterm results. So some nations are going to actively try and squeeze the United States, knowing that the current administration doesn't want the trade major trade deals to suddenly fall apart in the backdrop of a significant loss in the midterms.

Waiting Out Trump

Number two is the other side, which is some countries are going to try and wait out President Trump's remaining two years. They're going to try and figure out a way to put speed brakes on the trade deals on the security deals, on the cooperation, on the investments in the United States, hoping that what's taken place today in the U.S. midterms is a pretext for 2028 and the return of a more stable environment to U.S. politics. So some countries are going to try and squeeze the United States, like China, others are going to try and wait out the United States, like Canada, like Europe, potentially like Japan and South Korea. Now, the challenge facing these countries is how do you wait out the United States in terms of the current administration at a moment where the U.S. specifically President Trump may escalate the trade fights.

Trump Set Free?

And that leads to the third big geopolitical shockwave, which is, has Trump just been set free? Many are looking at the midterms and they're saying that the results Democrats winning, effectively puts guardrails, and constrains President Trump from taking any action, significant action. But consider that some of the most significant actions that President Trump has taken since he returned to office last year has not been through legislation. It hasn't been through getting policies passed in the U.S. House. His most significant steps from trade to the Iran war have all been unilateral from the executive branch. They've all been done with executive orders. This is likely to continue, if not increase, over the next two years. So, there is a growing disconnect between the U.S. house and the U.S. executive branch. And because President Trump now knows that he's not going to be able to get any of his most radical provocative ideas passed by the Democrats. He's now going to take more unilateral action. And this means that trade talks with Canada, trade talks with Europe, seeking more investment from Japan and South Korea to guarantee American security, all of that could rise, all of that could escalate, as Trump goes unconstrained. So, we will see over the coming weeks and months, whether the midterm results and the Democratic victory gives Trump a sense of freedom, as strange as that sounds, as ironic as that sounds, as illogical as that sounds, have the midterms set Trump free.

Then there's the question of the Democratic POV to geopolitics. Democrats now control the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate. And their outlook, vis-à-vis Ukraine, vis-à-vis sanctions on Russia, vis-à-vis Taiwan, vis-à-vis the US relationships with its Western allies, now matters more than ever before. vis-à-vis Israel. So the Democrats now have a seat at the decision making table, unlike what they've had over the past two years. The Democrat viewpoints, opinions, positions on these issues, on these conflicts, on these nations, on these allies, on these adversaries, now matters more than ever before. And there is uncertainty right now as to what are the Democrat positions. So as that is fleshed out more, as there is clarity around how Democrats view Ukraine. Is this now a war that Democrats want to continue funding Ukraine supporting Ukraine, and in correlation to that, introducing more stringent sanctions on Russia? Or is this a conflict that Democrats want to wrap up? Is there a bipartisan alignment there? So the Democrats are going to make their positions clear, and that's also going to influence how the current president, the current administration, the current White House occupant, deals with these global issues, deals with these global issues.

Now, as far as which region of the world is going to feel the midterms first, which is, again, something that's missing from the conversation, it's the Middle East. The Middle East is going to feel the effects of the midterms first because this U.S. Iran war is raging. There have been elections in Israel, and it's clear that Netanyahu and his bloc are victorious, even though it's a minority, he remains the leader of Israel, and he's made it clear that he will not allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon. In fact, the entire Iran war. There's been no clarity as to what the objectives are. So that conflict. is not ending. It's far from over. And so the midterms may be felt in the Middle East first as the U.S. and Israel, take joint action against Iran, effectively putting the Middle East back to where it was in February and March of this year. So the midterms, the first region to feel the effects actually isn't the U.S. or North America, it could be the Middle East.

The Silver Lining

Now, it's not all doom and gloom. There is a silver lining here. Which is that President Trump has accepted the results of the midterm races. And there was uncertainty as to what would happen considering how he was looking at decertifying the election results in certain parts of the US if they did not go in his favor. That doesn't appear to be on the table anymore. So the fact that he, the sitting president, is accepting the results will give a lot of confidence and a lot of assurance, especially in the middle of a U.S. bond crisis. that the American rule of law, the American election process, that the American governing structures and institutions are intact are stable, and that there is a peaceful transition of power, that there isn't this breakaway from the rule of law, from how democratic states function. And that will give a lot of investors a sigh of relief.

The point is, most of this midterm is focusing on changes to Texas, changes that we haven't seen in decades or even close to a century. The world stage matters just as much.

And considering everything I've just said, there's an additional point to think about, which hones in more on the U.S. than the world, which is, what did voters vote for Democrat ideas, policies, and candidates, or did they vote out of anger towards President Trump? That is a very important distinction to make. It's a very hard thing to measure. But if Democrats have won, because people voted against President Trump, That has a very short runway. That is not something that guarantees Democrat victories in 2028 because in 2028, President Trump will not be on the ballot, and within the next two years, emotions can swing. And so if this was an emotionally driven turnout for Democrats, that doesn't place Democrats on a strong footing for 2028. But if this was a vote on Democrat ideas, policies, positions, candidates, then that means the Democrat Party is no longer where it was a short time ago in terms of who are we? What do we stand for, what makes us different, that was the quagmire the Democrat Party was in after the 2024 U.S. presidential elections. It means the Democrat Party is no longer in that situation. And that puts Democrats in a very strong position. For the upcoming 2028 presidential election. So it's additional point to consider very much focused on the U.S.

Ultimately, all of this surrounds what I said at the beginning, that some countries are going to wait out Trump. Some countries are going to squeeze Trump. Some countries are going to have to brace themselves for Trump 3.0. And the point is, these US midterms are so significant for geopolitics. And increasingly, the irony, the strangeness, is that current administration may not be limited in their options now. They may go more unconstrained, potentially even more unhinged than ever before.

So I hope this video resonated with this video. Leave your comments below on all the points or one of the points. Do you agree with what I'm saying? Do you disagree? Let's have a conversation. Don't forget to hit, like, and subscribe and talk soon.